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The outbreak began in December. The repeated mingling of people and animals in China means that viral mutations that infect humans are likely to arise there; and mass migration to cities means that they are likely to spread between people. This virus probably originated in bats and passed through mammals, such as palm civets or ferret badgers, ending up in Wuhan’s wet market, where wild animals were on sale. Symptoms resemble flu, but can include pneumonia, which may be fatal. About 20% of reported cases are severe, and need hospital care; about 2% of them have been fatal. As yet, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment.
Scientists have started work on vaccines and on treatments to make infections less severe. These are six to 12 months away, so the world must fall back on public-health measures. In China that has led to the biggest quarantine in history, as Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province have been sealed off. The impact of such draconian measures has rippled throughout China. The spring holiday has been extended, keeping schools and businesses closed. The economy is running on the home-delivery of food and goods.
China’s growth in the first quarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almost a fifth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent on global growth.
The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. SARS, MERS, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine flu: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.
疫情始于去年12月。人和动物的反复混合意味着可能会出现感染人类的病毒突变；大量的人口迁移到城市意味着他们很可能在人群中传播。这种病毒可能起源于蝙蝠，通过哺乳动物传播，如棕榈果子狸或雪貂獾，最后出现在武汉的野生动物市场。症状类似于流感，但可能包括能致死的肺炎。约20%的报告病例是严重的，需要住院治疗；其中约2%是致命的。到目前为止，还没有疫苗或抗病毒治疗。
科学家已经开始研究疫苗和治疗方法，以降低感染的严重程度。但至少还需6到12个月的时间，所以世界必须依靠公共卫生措施。在中国，新冠病毒导致了历史上最大规模的隔离，武汉和湖北省其他地区已经被封锁。这些严厉措施的影响已波及整个中国。春节假期延长，学校停课、企业停工。而经济运行的基础是食品和商品的送货上门。
中国第一季度的经济增长率可能会从疫情爆发前的6%降至2%。由于中国占全球产出的近五分之一，全球经济增长可能会出现显著放缓。
世界对一种疾病的反应从来没有像2019年的新冠病毒迅速。即便如此，这种病毒仍可能造成巨大危害。随着人类侵占新栖息地、饲养更多动物、聚集在城市、旅行并使地球变暖，新型疾病将更加普遍。据估计，它们每年的成本为600亿美元。SARS、中东呼吸综合征、尼帕病毒、寨卡病毒、墨西哥猪流感，而武汉肺炎是最新的病毒。而这不会是最后一种。
Scientists have started work on vaccines and on treatments to make infections less severe. These are six to 12 months away, so the world must fall back on public-health measures. In China that has led to the biggest quarantine in history, as Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province have been sealed off. The impact of such draconian measures has rippled throughout China. The spring holiday has been extended, keeping schools and businesses closed. The economy is running on the home-delivery of food and goods.
China’s growth in the first quarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almost a fifth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent on global growth.
The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. SARS, MERS, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine flu: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.
疫情始于去年12月。人和动物的反复混合意味着可能会出现感染人类的病毒突变；大量的人口迁移到城市意味着他们很可能在人群中传播。这种病毒可能起源于蝙蝠，通过哺乳动物传播，如棕榈果子狸或雪貂獾，最后出现在武汉的野生动物市场。症状类似于流感，但可能包括能致死的肺炎。约20%的报告病例是严重的，需要住院治疗；其中约2%是致命的。到目前为止，还没有疫苗或抗病毒治疗。
科学家已经开始研究疫苗和治疗方法，以降低感染的严重程度。但至少还需6到12个月的时间，所以世界必须依靠公共卫生措施。在中国，新冠病毒导致了历史上最大规模的隔离，武汉和湖北省其他地区已经被封锁。这些严厉措施的影响已波及整个中国。春节假期延长，学校停课、企业停工。而经济运行的基础是食品和商品的送货上门。
中国第一季度的经济增长率可能会从疫情爆发前的6%降至2%。由于中国占全球产出的近五分之一，全球经济增长可能会出现显著放缓。
世界对一种疾病的反应从来没有像2019年的新冠病毒迅速。即便如此，这种病毒仍可能造成巨大危害。随着人类侵占新栖息地、饲养更多动物、聚集在城市、旅行并使地球变暖，新型疾病将更加普遍。据估计，它们每年的成本为600亿美元。SARS、中东呼吸综合征、尼帕病毒、寨卡病毒、墨西哥猪流感，而武汉肺炎是最新的病毒。而这不会是最后一种。
