我国主要经济指标持续改善 预计一季度GDP同比增速4%左右

Experts: China's Q1 GDP to grow at around 4%

今年以来，我国主要经济指标持续改善。多位经济学家普遍预计，未来我国经济复苏动能强劲，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

China's major economic indicators have continued to improve since the start of the year. With stronger market expectations, the country's economic development is picking up. A number of economists believe that China's economic recovery will see a strong momentum, expecting GDP growth in the first quarter to be around four percent on a yearly basis, according to a report by Securities Times on Monday.

《证券日报》周一发布的报告称，今年以来，我国主要经济指标持续改善，市场预期加快好转，经济发展仍在企稳回升之中。多位经济学家普遍预计，未来我国经济复苏动能强劲，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

Industrial output increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year in the first two months, and the service sector production index rose by 5.5 percent on a yearly basis in the same period.

1月份至2月份工业增加值累计同比增长2.4%，服务业生产指数累计同比增长5.5%。

In March, the manufacturing PMI remained at a high level and the non-manufacturing PMI continued to rise. Regarding the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year economic growth may further accelerate, said Bian Quanshui, chief macroeconomic researcher at Western Securities.

西部证券宏观首席分析师边泉水表示，3月份制造业PMI维持高位、非制造业PMI继续上行，叠加去年同期基数偏低，经济同比增速可能进一步加快。

The economic recovery since the year's beginning has been better than expected, Bian said, adding that GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be higher than expected, at around 3.4 to 4 percent.

总体上看，年初以来经济回升好于预期。一季度GDP同比增速可能高于预期，预计实现3.4%至4%左右的增长。

GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be around 4.0 percent year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2022, said Feng Lin, a researcher with Golden Credit Rating.

东方金诚高级分析师冯琳表示，一季度GDP有望同比增长4.0%左右，增速比2022年四季度加快1.1个百分点。

The rapid recovery of household consumption and the high growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter are the main driving forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, Feng said, adding that resilient manufacturing investment and the diminishing drag effect of real estate investment have all boosted the economic growth.

冯琳表示，一季度助力经济回升的主要推动力有两个，首先是居民消费较快回升。其次是基建投资保持高增长，制造业投资韧性强，地产投资的拖累效应在减弱。

Rising market demand is also playing a certain role in boosting confidence in manufacturing investment, which will remain resilient in the short term, the researcher said.

当前市场需求上升，也对制造业投资信心起到一定提振作用。短期内制造业投资仍会保持较强韧性。

According to a research report by Great Wall Securities, GDP in the first quarter is projected to rebound to around 4.3 percent, of which government consumption expenditure and capital formation, important supporting forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, will be about 0.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points, respectively.

长城证券研报显示，测算一季度GDP已经回升到4.3%左右，其中政府消费支出和资本形成分别拉动约0.8和2个百分点，是一季度经济回升的重要支撑力量。

As domestic consumption is key to economic growth, macro policies need to continue to boost consumption, stabilize investment and boost market confidence, Feng added.

冯琳认为，当前要更加倚重内需，宏观政策需要在促消费、稳投资、提振市场信心等方面持续发力。

来源：中国日报