宏观政策为经济保驾护航

Experts see macro policy shield for economy

中国人民银行决定于2023年3月27日降低金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。专家近日表示，此举有助于稳定借贷成本，提振内需，支持经济增长。

Continuous policy measures to protect China's economic recovery from external uncertainties can be expected after the country's central bank strengthened policy support with a cut in financial institutions' required reserves, experts said on Monday.

专家周一表示，在央行通过下调金融机构存款准备金率加强政策支持后，保护中国经济复苏不受外部不确定性影响的政策措施将持续出台。

The decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio, which determines the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, has delivered a clear signal that Chinese policymakers are keen to maintain macroeconomic policy support amid rising global financial volatility and economic downside risks, they said.

专家表示，降低存款准备金率的决定发出了一个明确的信号，即在全球金融波动加剧和经济下行风险加剧的情况下，中国政策制定者将维持宏观经济政策支持。存款准备金率决定了银行必须持有的现金储备数量。

On Friday, the People's Bank of China said it would reduce the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage point on March 27 to keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably ample.

上周五，中国人民银行表示，将从3月27日起将金融机构存款准备金率下调0.25个百分点，以保持银行体系流动性合理充裕。

The move is estimated to release about 500 billion yuan into the market, helping stabilize borrowing costs and strengthen domestic banks' ability to counter any spillover of rising global financial risks, experts said.

专家表示，此举预计将向市场释放约5000亿元人民币，有助于稳定借贷成本，增强国内银行应对全球金融风险不断上升的溢出效应的能力。

"More importantly, the cut sends a signal that policymakers are taking a proactive approach to support the economy, as the relaxation comes even as economic and financial data is picking up," said Zhong Linnan, a senior macroeconomic analyst at GF Securities.

广发证券资深宏观分析师钟林楠表示：“更重要的是，此次降准发出了一个信号，表明政策制定者正在采取积极措施支持经济，因为宽松政策出台之际，经济和金融数据正在回升。”

More support in terms of monetary, fiscal and industrial policies may be in the pipeline, Zhong said, noting that the central bank has stressed that the cut is part of "an optimal combination of macro policies" to serve the real economy.

钟林楠表示，更多的货币、财政和产业支持政策或正在酝酿之中。他指出，央行已经强调，此次降准是“宏观政策组合拳”的一部分，以提高服务实体经济水平。

Experts said it is possible that loan prime rates may slightly decline this year and help bolster domestic demand. On Monday, the one-year loan prime rate was kept unchanged at 3.65 percent, according to the PBOC.

专家表示，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）今年可能会略有下降，有助于提振国内需求。据中国人民银行周一消息，一年期LPR维持在3.65%不变。

"The scope for and possibility of loan prime rates declining will remain during the rest of the year, as the cut in the reserve requirement ratio will help tamp down the funding costs of banks," said Yan Se, an associate professor of applied economics at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management.

北京大学光华管理学院应用经济系副教授颜色说：“在今年剩余时间里，仍存在LPR下降的空间和可能性，因为降准将有助于降低银行的融资成本。”

He said that China's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively accommodative this year to expand domestic demand and consumption, which will be key to offsetting the downside risks facing exports because the stress on the international banking system can hinder global credit expansion and impair economic growth.

他说，今年中国的货币政策预计将保持相对宽松，以扩大内需和消费，这将是抵消出口面临的下行风险的关键，因为国际银行体系的压力可能阻碍全球信贷扩张，不利于经济增长。

As the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have raised interest rates at the fastest pace in years to curb inflation, a growing number of banks are caught in a liquidity strain.

随着美联储和其它国家央行以多年来最快速度加息以遏制通胀，越来越多的银行陷入流动性紧张。

Following the failure of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Swiss lender Credit Suisse reached a rescue deal with UBS over the weekend whereby the latter will acquire it for 3 billion Swiss francs.

继美国硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭之后，瑞士信贷银行上周末与瑞银集团达成了一项救援协议。瑞士信贷银行将被瑞银集团收购，总对价30亿瑞士法郎。

Experts warned that the turmoil could further evolve as the Fed's rate hike cycle is yet to come to an end, with its latest interest rate decision due to be unveiled on Wednesday.

专家警告称，由于美联储的加息周期尚未结束，金融市场的动荡可能会进一步发展。美联储将于周三公布最新利率决定。

Despite the rising external fragility, China is still capable of achieving its annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent, according to Yan.

颜色表示，尽管外部市场日益疲软，中国仍有能力实现国内生产总值增长5%左右的预期目标。

It is likely that China's GDP will expand by more than 5.5 percent this year, he said, thanks to the economy's internal momentum to recover from the impact of COVID-19, continuous policy support and last year's low comparison base.

他说，由于经济从新冠疫情影响中恢复的内在动力、持续的政策支持以及去年较低的比较基数，今年中国国内生产总值可能会增长5.5%以上。

来源：中国日报