Even if they keep revenues and costs under control, CEOs are discovering what their predecessors knew all too well: inflation plays havoc with the balance-sheet.
即使他们能够控制收入和成本,首席执行官们也发现了他们的前辈们再了解不过的事情:通货膨胀会严重破坏资产负债表。
That requires even tighter control of working capital (the value of inventories and what is owed by customers minus what is owed to suppliers).
这就需要更严格地控制营运资金(即存货价值加上客户欠款再减去欠供应商的金额后的资金)。
Many firms have misjudged demand for their products.
许多公司误判了消费者对其产品的需求量。
Walmart lost almost a fifth of its market value, or around $80bn, in mid-May, after it reported ashflowing squeeze caused by an excess build-up of inventories, which rose by a third year on year.
沃尔玛曾报告称其存货过剩,同比增加了三分之一,导致现金流紧张,随后该公司在5月中旬损失了近五分之一的市值,约合800亿美元。
On June 7th its smaller retailing rival, Target, issued a warning that its operating margin will fall from 5.3% last quarter to 2% in the current one, as it discounts goods to clear its excess inventories.
6月7日,其规模较小的零售竞争对手塔吉特发出警告称,由于打折商品以清空过剩库存,其运营利润率将从上个季度的5.3%降至本季度的2%。
Payment cycles—ie, when a firm pays suppliers and is paid by customers—become more important, too, as the purchasing power of cash delivered tomorrow withers in inflation’s heat.
支付周期--即公司向供应商付款并收取客户账款的时间--也变得更加重要,因为第二天交付的现金的购买力会在通胀的热浪中萎缩。
All this makes a business’s performance more difficult to assess.
这一切都导致企业的业绩更难评估。
For example, calculations of return on capital look more impressive with an inflated numerator (present returns) and the denominator (capital invested in the past) in old dollars.
例如,在分子(现在的回报)涨高,而分母(过去投资的资本)按旧美元来计价的情况下,资本回报率的计算看起来会更令人印象深刻。
Between 1979 and 1986, during the last bout of high inflation, American firms were required by law to present income statements that were adjusted for rising prices.
1979年至1986年,在上一轮高通胀期间,法律要求美国公司提交根据物价上涨进行调整的损益表。
This edict is unlikely to be revived.
这一法令不太可能恢复。
But even as bosses boast of higher nominal revenue growth, investment and compensation decisions should account for such artificial tailwinds.
但是,即使老板们吹嘘名义收入增长率更高,投资和薪酬决策也应该对这种人为的顺风因素负责。
Just ask Mr Buffett.
问问巴菲特就知道了。
In his letter to shareholders for 1980 he reminded them that profits must rise in proportion to increases in the price level without an increase in capital employed, lest the firm starts “chewing up” investors’ capital.
在1980年致股东的信中,他提醒他们,利润必须与价格水平的上升成比例增长,而不能增加所用资本,以免公司开始“蚕食”投资者的资本。
His missive to investors in 2023 may need to carry the same message.
他在2023年致投资者的信中可能需要传达同样的信息。
即使他们能够控制收入和成本,首席执行官们也发现了他们的前辈们再了解不过的事情:通货膨胀会严重破坏资产负债表。
That requires even tighter control of working capital (the value of inventories and what is owed by customers minus what is owed to suppliers).
这就需要更严格地控制营运资金(即存货价值加上客户欠款再减去欠供应商的金额后的资金)。
Many firms have misjudged demand for their products.
许多公司误判了消费者对其产品的需求量。
Walmart lost almost a fifth of its market value, or around $80bn, in mid-May, after it reported ashflowing squeeze caused by an excess build-up of inventories, which rose by a third year on year.
沃尔玛曾报告称其存货过剩,同比增加了三分之一,导致现金流紧张,随后该公司在5月中旬损失了近五分之一的市值,约合800亿美元。
On June 7th its smaller retailing rival, Target, issued a warning that its operating margin will fall from 5.3% last quarter to 2% in the current one, as it discounts goods to clear its excess inventories.
6月7日,其规模较小的零售竞争对手塔吉特发出警告称,由于打折商品以清空过剩库存,其运营利润率将从上个季度的5.3%降至本季度的2%。
Payment cycles—ie, when a firm pays suppliers and is paid by customers—become more important, too, as the purchasing power of cash delivered tomorrow withers in inflation’s heat.
支付周期--即公司向供应商付款并收取客户账款的时间--也变得更加重要,因为第二天交付的现金的购买力会在通胀的热浪中萎缩。
All this makes a business’s performance more difficult to assess.
这一切都导致企业的业绩更难评估。
For example, calculations of return on capital look more impressive with an inflated numerator (present returns) and the denominator (capital invested in the past) in old dollars.
例如,在分子(现在的回报)涨高,而分母(过去投资的资本)按旧美元来计价的情况下,资本回报率的计算看起来会更令人印象深刻。
Between 1979 and 1986, during the last bout of high inflation, American firms were required by law to present income statements that were adjusted for rising prices.
1979年至1986年,在上一轮高通胀期间,法律要求美国公司提交根据物价上涨进行调整的损益表。
This edict is unlikely to be revived.
这一法令不太可能恢复。
But even as bosses boast of higher nominal revenue growth, investment and compensation decisions should account for such artificial tailwinds.
但是,即使老板们吹嘘名义收入增长率更高,投资和薪酬决策也应该对这种人为的顺风因素负责。
Just ask Mr Buffett.
问问巴菲特就知道了。
In his letter to shareholders for 1980 he reminded them that profits must rise in proportion to increases in the price level without an increase in capital employed, lest the firm starts “chewing up” investors’ capital.
在1980年致股东的信中,他提醒他们,利润必须与价格水平的上升成比例增长,而不能增加所用资本,以免公司开始“蚕食”投资者的资本。
His missive to investors in 2023 may need to carry the same message.
他在2023年致投资者的信中可能需要传达同样的信息。