用户中心
Americans have accumulated some $2.5trn in extra savings compared with the pre-covid trend.
与疫情前的趋势相比，美国人已经积累了大约2.5万亿美元的额外储蓄。
Higher-than-expected incomes account for two-thirds of the stockpile, while lower-than-expected expenditures explain the other third, according to calculations by The Economist.
根据《经济学人》的计算，高于预期的收入占储蓄的三分之二，而低于预期的支出解释了另外三分之一。
This stash of cash could, in theory, provide a pillar for the economy over the coming year as policymakers withdraw support.
从理论上讲，随着政策制定者撤回支持，这些现金储备可能会为未来一年的经济提供支柱。
With annual consumer-price inflation running at a four-decade high—it hit 7% in December—the Federal Reserve has signalled that it intends to raise interest rates soon.
随着年度消费价格通胀达到40年来的最高水平——12月份达到了7%——美联储已经发出信号，它打算很快提高利率。
Some economists expect as many as four rate increases this year.
一些经济学家预计今年可能会有四次加息。
Fiscal policies are also becoming more parsimonious.
财政政策也变得更加节俭。
Many of the benefit top-ups expired in the autumn.
许多补贴已于今年秋季到期。
The Democratic Party's inability thus far to pass President Joe Biden's “Build Back Better” programme will lead to further retrenchment.
民主党迄今未能通过乔·拜登总统的“重建美好未来”计划，这将导致进一步的紧缩。
Will the extra savings blunt the impact of all this policy tightening?
额外的储蓄会削弱所有这些政策紧缩政策带来的影响吗？
There are reasons to be sceptical.
我们有理由对此表示怀疑。
Were the $2.5trn shared equally across the country, it would amount to about $7,500 for every American—more than the combined total of the three rounds of stimulus cheques.
如果2.5万亿美元在全国范围内平均分配，相当于每个美国人大约7500美元——这比三轮“刺激支票”的总和还要多。
In practice the distribution is far from equal.
实际上，分配远远不平等。
In the decade before covid-19 the wealthiest 1% of Americans had, in aggregate, about twice as much in cash and chequable bank deposits as the bottom 50%.
在疫情之前的十年里，最富有的1%的美国人总共拥有的现金和支票银行存款大约是底层50%人的两倍。
The pandemic has skewed this further: the top 1% now has four times as much as the bottom half.
这场疫情进一步扭曲了这一点：最富有的1%的人的收入是最贫穷50%人的四倍。
Over the government directed its assistance towards poorer Americans, the ultra-rich reaped far greater rewards, thanks in large part to soaring asset prices.
政府的援助对象是较贫穷的美国人，但超级富豪获得的回报要大得多，这在很大程度上要归功于飙升的资产价格。
That matters in trying to assess the potential impact of excess savings.
在试图评估过度储蓄的潜在影响时，这一点很重要。
The wealthy typically spend a low share of their incomes.
富人的消费只占他们收入很少的一部分。
The extra cash sitting in their hands is more likely to go towards investment accounts than grocery purchases.
他们手中的额外现金更有可能用于投资，而不是购买食品杂货。
与疫情前的趋势相比，美国人已经积累了大约2.5万亿美元的额外储蓄。
Higher-than-expected incomes account for two-thirds of the stockpile, while lower-than-expected expenditures explain the other third, according to calculations by The Economist.
根据《经济学人》的计算，高于预期的收入占储蓄的三分之二，而低于预期的支出解释了另外三分之一。
This stash of cash could, in theory, provide a pillar for the economy over the coming year as policymakers withdraw support.
从理论上讲，随着政策制定者撤回支持，这些现金储备可能会为未来一年的经济提供支柱。
With annual consumer-price inflation running at a four-decade high—it hit 7% in December—the Federal Reserve has signalled that it intends to raise interest rates soon.
随着年度消费价格通胀达到40年来的最高水平——12月份达到了7%——美联储已经发出信号，它打算很快提高利率。
Some economists expect as many as four rate increases this year.
一些经济学家预计今年可能会有四次加息。
Fiscal policies are also becoming more parsimonious.
财政政策也变得更加节俭。
Many of the benefit top-ups expired in the autumn.
许多补贴已于今年秋季到期。
The Democratic Party's inability thus far to pass President Joe Biden's “Build Back Better” programme will lead to further retrenchment.
民主党迄今未能通过乔·拜登总统的“重建美好未来”计划，这将导致进一步的紧缩。
Will the extra savings blunt the impact of all this policy tightening?
额外的储蓄会削弱所有这些政策紧缩政策带来的影响吗？
There are reasons to be sceptical.
我们有理由对此表示怀疑。
Were the $2.5trn shared equally across the country, it would amount to about $7,500 for every American—more than the combined total of the three rounds of stimulus cheques.
如果2.5万亿美元在全国范围内平均分配，相当于每个美国人大约7500美元——这比三轮“刺激支票”的总和还要多。
In practice the distribution is far from equal.
实际上，分配远远不平等。
In the decade before covid-19 the wealthiest 1% of Americans had, in aggregate, about twice as much in cash and chequable bank deposits as the bottom 50%.
在疫情之前的十年里，最富有的1%的美国人总共拥有的现金和支票银行存款大约是底层50%人的两倍。
The pandemic has skewed this further: the top 1% now has four times as much as the bottom half.
这场疫情进一步扭曲了这一点：最富有的1%的人的收入是最贫穷50%人的四倍。
Over the government directed its assistance towards poorer Americans, the ultra-rich reaped far greater rewards, thanks in large part to soaring asset prices.
政府的援助对象是较贫穷的美国人，但超级富豪获得的回报要大得多，这在很大程度上要归功于飙升的资产价格。
That matters in trying to assess the potential impact of excess savings.
在试图评估过度储蓄的潜在影响时，这一点很重要。
The wealthy typically spend a low share of their incomes.
富人的消费只占他们收入很少的一部分。
The extra cash sitting in their hands is more likely to go towards investment accounts than grocery purchases.
他们手中的额外现金更有可能用于投资，而不是购买食品杂货。
